Weekly Commentary August 11th

ONE TRADING NEWS

We hope this finds you well and in good spirits and profit. It’s been a busy week, so let’s have a look at some news and talking points…

• This week was our CEO, Joshua Barraclough, running a Twitter Spaces (is that still what we should be calling it!? Or, is it X Spaces now?). In any case, he did one and shared updates on the journey so far and some of the things upcoming.  If you didn’t get a chance to listen in, you can hear the recording by clicking on the image below:  

• Note: unless there’s an announcement otherwise, we will be hosting these Twitter/X space sessions (every Tuesday 12pm GMT with CEO Josh) so we’d love to have more of you on there live. Our latest blog on "From Novice to Pro: How to Start Trading on a Crypto Exchange" you can read by clicking on the image below:

GENERAL MACRO NEWS

Beat from the Street (Tech/Business/Finance/Economy)

• Roblox (RBLX) shares sink after reporting disappointing second-quarter earnings (Yahoo) RBLX
• Nvidia (NVDA) stock dips on concerns surrounding semiconductor chip supply. (Yahoo) Link
• Apple (AAPL) shares are off by about 8.8% in August, according to Yahoo Finance data, badly underperforming the S&P 500's 1.6% drop. The stock has fallen below its key 50-day moving average as sentiment has soured after the company's tepid earnings report a week ago. Apple is down roughly 9% — or 1 percentage point away from reaching the technical definition of a correction. During this span, Apple has seen a loss of $255 billion in market value. (Yahoo) Link
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PayPal launches their own stablecoin, and is now the newest contender in the $120B stablecoin market…

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Almost everyone in the web3 space has been talking about PayPal’s new USD stablecoin (PYUSD) launch. What are your thoughts?  We’re seeing mixed opinions. While at face value it sounds like an amazing thing for crypto. This may well not be the case, or, it could be a double edged sword… It’s interesting that we were discussing Twitter’s rebrand to X last week and the mention of the parallel with China’s “everything” app, WeChat, that Elon has spoken about affectionately - is the next step an X / PayPal integration?? Time will tell… but, for now, here’s what we know… People are intrigued by it but many are highly skeptical…

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CoinDesk believe it is a move for PayPal to collect the interest on your dollars.

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“See, PYUSD, like other reputable dollar stablecoins, will be “backed” by a collection of dollar bank deposits and highly liquid dollar equivalents held in a trust managed by Paxos Trust. (Coindesk) Link

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Short-dated U.S. Treasuries, which are likely to make up the bulk of PYUSD’s backing, are now offering a whopping 5% yield. (CNBC) link

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PayPal gets to keep that yield.” (Yahoo) Link

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Keir-Finlow Bates, otherwise known as #BlockchainGandalf also produced a well-written overview. see on LinkedIn -> Link

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No matter what angle you look at it, something that is concerning to many is that it has a ‘centralisation attack vector’ which can wipe your balance in 2 transactions:

• - ‘freeze’
• - ‘wipeFrozenAddress’

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There are further issues, such as a solidity version being used (with over 11 known bugs). The other concern is the "setAssetProtectionRole" that allows PayPal to transfer users' coins into their own wallet at any time. See on Etherscan here -> Link

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This news has many people comparing this to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC’s) that we are hearing more and more about in the news. Are they as dystopian and scary as many are purporting them to be?! Perhaps we will do a deep dive into them and what many are saying. Let us know if you’d like to see that?

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TradFi Pulse:

Web3/crypto startup fundraises, Relevant earnings calls, e.g. Tesla, Alphabet, Meta etc.

• BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US inflation RISES to 3.2%. The first increase since July 2022. Transitory 🧐
• Global stocks slip before CPI data, dollar dips on China selling - (Reuters) Reuters
• Stocks on Wall Street slide on caution ahead of CPI data
• Dollar inches lower ahead of inflation report
• Italy's bank tax reassurance ignites European stocks
• Oil price touches highest level since January on tight supply

CPI is forecast to show headline inflation picking up slightly in July to an annual 3.3%, while the core rate is seen unchanged at 4.8%, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

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A broad sell-off on Tuesday was sparked by Moody's ratings cut to 10 small and mid-sized U.S. banks which cast a pall over the market facing high equity valuations and rising interest rates after Fitch's surprise downgrade of U.S. government debt.

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Canada's main stock index closed higher in a choppy trade on Wednesday, with strong earnings guidance from aviation training specialist CAE lifting the stock, while energy stocks got a boost from higher oil prices. (Reuters) Reuters

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• China’s economy has slipped into deflation for the first time since early 2021

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According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the world's second-largest economy saw its consumer price index fall by 0.3% in annual terms in July. Meanwhile, factory gate prices saw further declines, falling by 4.4%.

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MARKET NEWS (CRYPTO SPECIFIC)

• BREAKING: SEC to appeal judge ruling that $XRP is not a security 🤡
• Microsoft and Aptos Labs team up on new blockchain AI tools
• Coinbase to partially buy back $1billion bonds at a premium
• Coinbase are also looking to add Bitcoin Lightning for payments
• Multicoin backer L1 Digital raises $152M for second crypto VC fund
• U.S. Fed clarifies processes for banks to transact in stablecoins 
• Sino Global files $67M claim against Alameda
• Revolut to Shutter crypto operations due to “Regulatory Environment” - they will suspend cryptocurrency services in the U.S., with complete access disabled from October 3. (Decrypt) Decrypt

Prices (at the time of writing)

• BTC: $29,848
• ETH: $1,859

Dominance:

• BTC: 47%
• ETH: 18%
• Stablecoins: 9%

Market Cap:

• Total: 1.23T
• DeFi: 47.094B

NOTE: The Fear and Greed Index is a tool that used to measure the sentiment of the market. It’s based on a number of factors, including the price of Bitcoin, the trading volume, and social media sentiment. The index is scored on a scale of 0 to 100, with 0 being extreme fear and 100 being extreme greed.

Fear and Greed Index

As of August 5th, 2023, the Fear and Greed Index for Bitcoin is 50, which is classified as Neutral. The index has been in the Neutral range for the past few weeks, as investors have been cautious about the global economy and the future of Bitcoin.

The index has reached neutral status… It’ll be interesting to see where we move from here. Thoughts? Bullish or Bearish? 

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Are you trading as well as the pro’s? 👍👎🤔

A question as ancient as time itself lingers: Who ranks as the top-performing investors in the crypto sphere? Could it be venture capitalists, retail investors, A.I. algorithms, or even dart-throwing monkeys? One thing is for certain, it's definitely not crypto hedge funds. They've turned out to be among the weakest players this year.

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A recent report by Bloomberg News shed light on the matter, revealing: Link

• Crypto hedge funds yielded an average return of 15.2% in the first half of 2023.
• Consequently, 13% of crypto hedge funds closed their doors this year.

It's worth noting that the crypto world is peculiar. Imagine being criticized and shut down for achieving a 15% return in just six months! In contrast, Warren Buffet has averaged 15% yearly returns over the past decade, and people hail him as the GOAT 🐐

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TRADING HIGHLIGHTS

Top 3 performing coins this week

Some big moves this week. This is for informational purposes only. We are not endorsing any of these… Interesting to see there are still big moves happening, though… (CoinMarketCap)

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BITCOIN UPDATES

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It’s been a bullish week for bitcoin! Bitcoin held by long-term holders hit a new all time high this week! 💎👐

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Despite BTC surging by 75%, trade volume continued to fall in 2023 with nearly all exchanges registering double-digit declines in July relative to 2022.

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"Bitcoin’s price breached the $30,000 mark in the early hours of Wednesday but consolidated to trading above the $29500 level. This movement could be because of the fall in Chinese trade numbers for July and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield descending lower by 11 basis points to 3.98%," Edul Patel, Co-founder and CEO at Mudrex, said. 

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Whatever the reason, the bulls are excited! 

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CME's Bitcoin futures market in July saw a volume of $55.78 billion, the highest level since January 2022 (The Block) The Block

Long-term volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has reached multi-year lows, with 180-day volatility at 46% for BTC and 49% for ETH…

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The mighty BlackRock is willing to have an ETF in Bitcoin, maybe Bitcoin is going to be around for a while.” David Rubenstein. 

Whether you’re bullish or bearish, we always like to hear what other people are thinking… We’re certainly seeing some good signals, though… We enjoyed an article by Simon Smith, “Why the Bitcoin price is likely to rise a lot over the next 2.5 years”. Do you agree? Let us know via our social media or community channels (listed below). In the meantime, here’s our meme of the week… You can read the article here -> Press this link

MEME OF THE WEEK

#IYKYK… 😄.

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• Twitter: @onetrading_com
• Discord: discord.gg/onetrading
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• Website: www.onetrading.com www.onetrading.com

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Have a great weekend,

The One Trading team