Summarising weekly developments: 1T, Macro, TradFi, Crypto and much more...
Happy Friday One Traders,
Hope you’ve had an enjoyable week! We’ve been busy working away on a very exciting new product that we will be launching very soon so keep an eye out for that in the coming weeks!
We have a new trading pair back in action BTC/GBP and are adding more on an ongoing basis.
Follow our socials for more day-to-day updates. We will be picking up our Twitter/X Spaces session again next week with our CEO, Josh Barraclough so be sure to tune in.
Our latest blog on "The Future of Crypto Exchange: Trends to Watch Out For". You can read this by clicking on the image below:
US employment remains robust, however, the economy’s health is difficult to gauge- when looking at household debt, credit card debt and the rates consumers are paying to finance it all, we are sitting at all-time highs… late credit card payments (delinquencies) are starting to rise but mortgage delinquencies are still low and showing healthy repayments. Many are calling for a 2008-esque debt bubble… As the saying goes, history has a tendency to repeat itself…
Intel's stock decreased by 1.6% following its Wednesday announcement of terminating the deal to buy Tower Semiconductor due to delays in regulatory approvals. As a result, Intel will hand over a $353 million termination fee to Tower. Meanwhile, Tower Semiconductor's shares plummeted by 11%.
AI Wave Boosts Returns for Norway’s $1.4 Trillion Fund - Norway’s $1.4 trillion sovereign wealth fund returned 10%, or $143 billion, in the first half as demand for artificial intelligence and semiconductor components saw technology stocks rebound.
A return of 38.6% in tech company shares drove a 13.7% return in the equity portfolio, with chipmakers and the biggest internet and software firms benefiting from a surge in interest in AI solutions, the manager of Norway’s oil and gas riches said in a report on Tuesday. Fixed-income investments returned 2.3%, while unlisted real estate holdings were down 4.6%. The fund’s report was set to be released Wednesday.
Dubai Fines Three Arrows Capital (3AC) Founders Over OPNX Crypto Project - Dubai authorities fined the co-founders of failed crypto hedge fund 3AC in their latest enforcement action against the duo’s new digital-asset exchange OPNX.
The Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority said it had issued the company a fine of 10 million dirhams ($2.7 million) in May that remains unpaid. The regulator said penalties of 200,000 dirhams ($54,451) for Su Zhu and Kyle Davies along with OPNX co-founder Mark Lamb and CEO Leslie Lamb for failures to abide by the rules for marketing, advertising and promotions have been paid.
CBDC’s Anyone? 🤔
There has been a lot of talk about Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC’s) over the last few years. What are they? At face value they are digital pounds, dollars, euros, etc, which sounds quite normal if you consider a large portion of the population have become accustomed to paying with contactless cash means.
It is important to understand that there is a difference in what is being proposed, whereby, a CBDC is a programmatic form of money where every transaction can be monitored and the currency itself can be programmed to, for example, expire within a given timeframe or, be deducted from your account if linked to a social credit, or, carbon credits based system.
There is an interesting video covered by Coin Bureau that is worth watching if you’d like to learn more about this
Many are concerned that this will infringe on privacy and be used as a means of dystopian control. What are your thoughts? Let us know…
According to Christine Lagarde, it sounds like an ECB CBDC has already been decided upon, even though later there is reference that it will be up to the Governing Council. The Governing Council is the main decision-making body of the ECB, so I think we can all make an educated guess as to how they are going to vote. Will European citizens get to have a say?
It is interesting to consider the data from the ECB that while payment options are in some ways unrecognisable from what was available a decade ago, cash remains the most frequently used means of payment. It is clearly in decline, though… as you can see in the chart below.
“Although most payments were still made in cash, 55% of euro area consumers prefer paying with card, or other cashless means of payment. This is mostly due to the convenience of cashless payments: people do not need to carry hard cash. Still, cash is the preferred means of payment for 22% of those surveyed, largely because card payments track people’s expenses and are more private.
Despite the preference for cashless payments, 60% of euro area consumers state that they value having the option to pay in cash.
This shows that people appreciate having a choice when it comes to how they pay. Their decision may then depend on the particular situation or purchase.” (ECB)
We are eager to see how the future unfolds for cash! Let’s see if cash-is-king continues to rule…
Markets Brace for Next Move - The ghost of inflation looms over the markets this season. As concerns persist about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ongoing combat with surging prices, both stocks and bonds have experienced turbulence recently. All eyes are on the upcoming release of the Fed's July meeting minutes at 2 p.m. (ET) on Wednesday, with investors eager to decipher future rate directions.
Last month, the Fed hiked its prime lending rate by 0.25 percentage points. While this move indicated their response to inflation surpassing their 2 percent goal, the possibility of more hikes hasn't been ruled out. Despite data from the July rate-setting meeting suggesting a slowdown in inflation, market jitters remain.
Recent robust retail sales figures and assertive remarks from several central bank officials have further stirred the market pot. Mary Ann Bartels, Sanctuary Wealth's chief investment strategist, shared with DealBook, "Investors are on the lookout for insights into the Fed’s stance from its minutes, especially in terms of its dovish or hawkish inclination. Given the economy's stronger-than-anticipated performance, there's a possibility the Fed might persist with interest rate hikes." (NYT)
With Investors on Edge, Fed Minutes Take on New Urgency
Inflation fears have led to a sell-off in stocks and bonds in August as the markets fret the possibility of more interest-rate increases.
That uncertainty, along with concerns about China’s sputtering economy, has sapped investor enthusiasm.
After a bull-market rally in the first-half of the year, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 3 percent this month; the tech-heavy Nasdaq has tumbled 5 percent in that period.
Recession predictions haven’t gone away. Bank of America’s latest survey of global fund managers, released on Tuesday, carried the headline that it was “the least bearish” since February 2022, which was just before the Fed’s push to ramp up interest rates
Prices (at the time of writing)
We’re still in the neutral area… This is always an interesting time and it often doesn’t take much in terms of broader macroeconomic considerations to move the sentiment up or down… Talking of up and down, let’s have a look at the top gainers and losers in the token space this week.
Top 3 Gainers (out of the top 100 by market cap only) - as always, this is not financial advice (CoinGecko)
It’s been a rollercoaster week for Bitcoin…
Bitcoin showed bearish signs as its trading volume touched its lowest point ever recorded.
That said… once again, Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders is now at an all-time high of 14.6M Bitcoins 🙌 Short-Term Holder supply has instead declined to 2.56M Bitcoins, lowest level since the end of 2021.
Bitcoin yo-yo: While we thought things were on even keels with all the yo-yo-ing between positive and negative sentiment for Bitcoin this week, Elon Musk’s SpaceX sold all $373 million worth of it’s Bitcoin, (Cointelegraph) which many believe is responsible for the consequential cascade of the price from around $29K to $25K. $25K appears to be a key level of support as we've since seen a bounce back to just under $27K. There may be more movement over the coming days, so this will be an interesting level to watch.
In the meantime, happy trading and check out our new social channels added below.
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Have a great weekend,
The One Trading team
Summarising weekly developments: Macro, TradFi, Crypto and Regulation...
Chainanalysis Assessment of Regional Crypto Adoption
Summarising weekly developments: Macro, TradFi, Crypto and Regulation...