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Summarising weekly developments: 1T, Macro, TradFi, Crypto and much more...
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Happy Friday One Traders,
Another week has flown by… We hope you’ve had a good one! We certainly have!
One of the highlights this week was our latest Twitter/X Spaces session with our CEO, Josh Barraclough. We covered a range of topics in the session, including listings, ecosystem tokens, and our new product Instant Trade, which we are launching for all of our customers next week! You can hear the full interview here.
Keep an eye out for our latest blog next Thursday that will cover all of the specifics and benefits of using Instant Trade…
Read Our latest blog on "Crypto Exchange Security: Protecting Your Assets in the Digital World". You can read this by clicking on the image below:
For now, let’s have a look back at what’s happened over the last week!
The short-term correlation between Nasdaq tech stocks and Bitcoin has turned positive, indicating the two are moving more in step — (Bloomberg).
In a week marked by significant developments, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released on Wednesday have shed light on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) perspective on the economy. While most officials continue to advocate for higher interest rates, concerns about potential over-tightening have emerged.
The Fed also acknowledged a tightening of bank credit conditions and, reassuringly, expressed optimism by not forecasting a recession in 2023. However, the decline in commercial real estate values has raised concerns about certain banks. (Simplicity Group Alpha).
The US Equity Put/Call Ratio is back above +2 standard deviations for the first time since March of this year and before that December of 2022. We’ve only been at these levels eleven times since 2012.This has worked well as a contrarian buy signal for equities historically, though.
Global equities are also just in the process of retesting previous resistance (now support) following the breakout from the massive inverse head-and-shoulders pattern back in June.
In our view, this price action is not bearish (yet) and simply a technical correction following very overbought sentiment during the last week of July; more on sentiment later on in this week’s publication.
All said, we think that while in the short-term there’s potential for more downside as markets realign with liquidity conditions and unwind the overbought sentiment, it’s going to be very difficult for this to be anything more than just a short-term correction.
Remember, retail money has been long this year but the pros (i.e. big banks) have not and they will very likely use this correction in equities to cover their deeply underwater shorts and get long.
This should provide a floor as to how far equities can fall and we think we can already get there in the next week or two as September seasonality starts to improve, let’s see (Global Macro Investor).
In other news, Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy. While not surprising, this could have catastrophic knock-on consequences to the broader macroeconomy as it has over $300B in liabilities. There were already growing concerns about China’s property debt crisis and overall economy so this is one to keep an eye on. China is targeting 5% annual growth for its economy this year but a growing number of economists think it could miss that goal unless Beijing ramps up control measures to stop the decline (Reuters).
Prices (at the time of writing)
Market Cap:
Market Cap:
We’ve seen a significant drop away from the neutral level we’ve seen in the last few weeks previously. We’re now back into a more fearful state from 52 last week. This 28.85% drop could be attributed to various factors covered above in the General Updates section. Many have also been concerned with the increase in wildfires and arson across the globe. Then again, the crypto space is notorious for its volatility so it's anyone's guess as to what has caused the recent slump.
TRADING HIGHLIGHTS
Top 3 Gainers (out of the top 100 by market cap only) - as always, this is not financial advice (CoinGecko)
After a tumultuous week for Bitcoin last week with a drop from $29K to $26K we’ve seen more stability on the price. We’ve also seen some interesting statistics across the board:
🟠⛏ Bitcoin mining stocks are up 200% YTD in the aggregate, with Cipher Mining (CIFR) leading the pack at nearly 400% 🔥 Bitcoin (Telegram Group)
75% of all available Bitcoin is held by long-term holders 💎🙌
Despite BTC prices rallying by more than 70% this year, the “Alameda gap” — the sharp decline in liquidity we observed after the collapse of FTX and its sister company Alameda Research — has persisted.
The average household electricity cost for mining 1 Bitcoin is $46,291.24. You can see the global averages in the image above. (CoinGecko)
Macro-analyst Lyn Alden says Bitcoin shows a high degree of positive correlation with the expansion and contraction of the global M2 money supply. @Bitcoin (Telegram Group)
With a current RSI of 20 (yes, 20!), Bitcoin is the most oversold since June of last year.
Source: (Global Macro Investor)
Bitcoin Ordinals NFT trading volume has tanked 98% since May
Bitcoin Ordinals sales volume takes a nosedive 📉 Plummeting from its peak of $452 million in May 2023 to a mere $3 million by mid-August. A staggering 97% plunge in just three months! 😮 @News_NFT (Telegram)
On the flipside, almost as quickly as people are writing off Ordinals, Dan Held, shares some interesting alpha…
If you’re looking for an interesting way to learn more about Bitcoin, there is a fantastic explanation of what money and Bitcoin are on the @TuttleTwinsTV Twitter/X profile. The award-winning show teaches kids ideas of freedom and economics. You can watch the cartoon here.
Thanks for reading! We hope you’ve enjoyed it!
For more updates, follow us across our channels here
Have a great weekend,
The One Trading team
Crypto Asset Services are offered by One Trading Markets S.r.l.
One Trading Markets S.r.l. is an Italian Virtual Asset Services Provider (VASP) registered with Organismo Agenti e Mediatori (OAM).
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