Weekly Commentary September 15th

ONE TRADING NEWS

Happy Friday One Traders,

We hope you’ve had a great week! We are still buzzing since the launch of our new product, Instant Trade. If you missed last week’s newsletter or blog, below is a quick recap:

Summary of Instant Trade:

• Comprehensive - Trade 100+ pairs between crypto-assets and fiat seamlessly  
• Trade in size - trade up to €10M in one click
• 0% commission - no commission charged on the price quoted
• Safe - Regulated in the EU, we uphold high regulatory standards 
• Regulated - when the rules change we adapt. We are leading the way in the regulatory and compliance area
• Convenient - trade anywhere, anytime on desktop or mobile 

We’ve listed the following crypto-assets since we launched last week:

DOT, PERP, NEAR, CYBER, PEPE, MKR, SAND, 1INCH, ALGO, FTM

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We’ve done an analysis on price comparison of Instant Trade versus similar offerings which we’ll be sharing next Monday, we’ll also soon be announcing an Instant Trade competition with a token giveaway for the winner. 

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Instant Trade comes with a simpler UI for spot trading and a wider selection of crypto-fiat and crypto-crypto pairs available, as well as many more alternative popular altcoins. 

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Read more about Instant Trade on our blog here and you can listen to our latest Twitter/X Spaces AMA with our CEO, Josh Barraclough, where he covers the questions that were sent in over the last week, here. 

GENERAL MACRO NEWS

Beat from the Street (Tech/Business/Finance/Economy)

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• Online grocery firm Instacart seeks up to $9.3 billion valuation in IPO (CNBC)
• SpaceX abandons YouTube for live streams of launches in favour of X.
• Phone networks as customers struggle to make calls. Widespread Vodafone/EE outage is now fixed, networks say.
• iPhone users urged to update immediately
• The US is investing $22m in surveillance socks and other wearable tech.
• World's first solar-powered hybrid truck tested on public roads.
• AI can help generate viruses and spark pandemics, warns ex-Google exec.
• Elon Musk vows to sue ADL for calling him antisemitic (The Independent).

Retail sales grew by 4.3% in the UK in August compared to the previous year, surpassing expectations. However, it's worth noting that this growth is still below the inflation rate, indicating a decrease in real retail sales by 2.5% year on year. 

China faced challenges as the Caixin services PMI for August dropped to 51.8, significantly lower than expected and the lowest reading since December 2022, during the country's COVID-19 lockdowns. Chinese exports also saw a decline of -8.8% year on year, with notable drops in exports to ASEAN countries and the Eurozone. Imports in China declined by 7.3% year on year, reflecting weak external and domestic demand. 

US CPI for August will be released on Wednesday, it will help us understand if the US economy is truly improving

Last week, the US economy displayed some positive signals that, surprisingly, led to a decline in the markets. 

Despite a solid increase in the unemployment rate, the Thursday jobless claims report in the US came in lower than expected. This suggests that the labour market remains resilient with the number of Americans applying for unemployment reaching its lowest level in six months. 

US factory orders declined by 2.1% month over month, primarily due to a drop in transportation-related orders. However, when we exclude transportation, core factory orders actually increased by 0.8% month over month. This could be seen as a positive sign for the US manufacturing sector.

The US ISM services sector exceeded expectations, with a reading of 54.5 (versus an expected 52.5). This marked the strongest expansion in over six months, indicating that the American economy is showing more resilience than anticipated. Business activity, new orders, employment, and inventories all improved, although rising prices hinted at increasing inflationary pressures, which might concern the Federal Reserve.

Mortgage applications in the US fell by 2.9% week over week, reaching their lowest level since 1995. This decline is attributed to a state of paralysis caused by fluctuating interest rates in the mortgage market (Simplicity Group Alpha). 

Banks in the US just saw their biggest weekly deposit outflows since the collapse of SVB. Total bank deposits (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) plunged by $70 billion last week alone. This puts bank deposits at their lowest levels since May. At the same time, usage of the Fed's emergency bank funding facility just hit a record high $108 billion. Is the regional bank crisis really over? (The Kobeissi Letter)

TradFi Pulse:

• LSE Group plans blockchain-powered digital markets business (AltFi)
• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that while the U.S. economy is doing well, it would be a “huge mistake” to believe that it will last for years. Topping his concerns include central banks reining in liquidity programs via “quantitative tightening,” the Ukraine war, and governments around the world “spending like drunken sailors,” the CEO said. “To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you are going to have a booming environment for years, is a huge mistake,” Dimon said. (CNBC)
• Stocks making the big moves this week: Tesla, Qualcomm, Meta, Moderna and more (CNBC)

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MARKET NEWS (CRYPTO SPECIFIC)

Digital asset investment products saw outflows totalling $59m last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of outflows, this run of outflows now totals $294m and represents 0.9% of total assets under management (AuM) — (CoinShares) 

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• Ripple buys crypto infrastructure startup in its second acquisition of 2023 (CNBC)
• Roblox, a popular #metaverse platform, will launch on Sony's #PlayStation 4 (PS4) and PlayStation 5 (PS5) in October 2023. (Dexerto)
• Coinbase begins offering crypto loans to large US institutional investors (Bloomberg)
• Coinbase increases bond buyback program to $180 million (The Block)
• Genesis Global Capital files for over $600M in unpaid DCG loans: Court docs — (CoinDesk)
• An interventionist SEC risks a courtroom backlash as Gensler is under fire yet again (Financial Times)
• JPMorgan exploring blockchain-based payment and settlement system: (Bloomberg)
• Solana users fall to lowest level in more than 2 years (The Block)
• JUST IN: $1.5 trillion asset manager Franklin Templeton files for Spot #Bitcoin ETF (ZyCrypto)
• Breaking: The crypto exchange CoinEX is suspected of being hacked. So far its #ETH, #TRON, and #Polygon hot wallets have lost more than $27.8 million. (AMB Crypto)

Prices (at the time of writing)

• BTC: $26,188 ⬆️ from $25,687 last week (+1.95%)
• ETH:  $1,602  ⬇️ from $1,629 last week (-1.66%)  

Dominance:

• BTC: 47.28 % ⬆️ (+0.95%) from 46.33% last week  
• ETH: 17.86% ⬇️ (-0.29%) from 18.15% last week  
• Stables: 10.09% no change from 10.09% last week

Market Cap:

• Total: 1.08T no change from 1.08T last week

Fear and Greed Index

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We’ve not seen any movement in the last week with the index staying at 40. Considering there are a good number of uncertainties in the broader macro market this is good to see. 

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TRADING HIGHLIGHTS

‍Top 3 Gainers (out of the top 100 by market cap only) - as always, this is not financial advice.

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BITCOIN UPDATES

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There’s been a mixed bag of Bitcoin signals. One of the best things to remember about Bitcoin is to zoom out. Whilst there are no tangible updates on the high-profile Bitcoin spot ETF applications we have been covering over previous weeks, there are a number of other updates to cover off below.. 

Number of addresses with more than 0.1 Bitcoin at a new All-Time high of 4,482,538 

• Grayscale urges U.S. SEC to approve spot Bitcoin ETF following court victory (Reuters)
• US Senator Ted Cruz told Forbes he's bullish on #Bitcoin because it "enhances freedom" and isn't government controlled. (Bitcoin Magazine via X)
• The former President of PayPal and Head of Facebook payments works on Bitcoin “Bitcoin is the universal protocol for money on the internet.” - (David Marcus on CNBC via X) 
• Bitcoins hashrate continues to climb (CryptoSlate)
• This weekend saw the second highest addition of Bitcoin addresses in history  (Tron Weekly)
• “Bitcoin fair value stands at 💵 $45K, according to Capriole Investment founder Charles Edwards 👀”.  (Charles Edwards via X)

💰 ‘I'm Bullish on Bitcoin’ — Ted Cruz Champions Bitcoin's Boon for Texas and Power Grid Boosts

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Ted Cruz, the U.S. Republican senator from Texas, expressed his optimism on Friday, stating he’s “bullish on bitcoin,” after a recent interview with Forbes released on September 8. During the conversation, Cruz highlighted emerging reports indicating that bitcoin mining is positively impacting Texas’ power grid, commonly referred to as the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (News.Bitcoin).

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If you’re eager to listen to podcasts about Bitcoin there are lots out there- here’s a good place to start for some interesting and bullish sentiment… Fountain.FM

MEME OF THE WEEK...

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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend 😃 and for more updates, follow us across our channels here and please do let us know what you think of Instant Trade! 

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All the best,

The One Trading team