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Weekly Commentary December 1st

Summarising weekly developments: Macro, TradFi, Crypto and Regulation...

Published in: One Trading · 5 min read
Summarising weekly developments: 1T, Macro, TradFi, Crypto and much more...

Happy Friday One Traders!

We hope you’ve had a good and successful week. If you're not already, connect with us on our community channels Discord and Telegram for more regular updates.

If you haven’t tried Instant Trade yet, you can read a summary of all of the benefits here. You can also see a comparison in the prices we offer vs other mainstream exchanges in our blog here


We'll soon be upgrading our exchange called F.A.S.T, making the One Trading Exchange the lowest-latency digital asset exchange in the world, providing clients with the fastest price discovery and order execution amongst digital asset trading venues.

Let’s have a look at what’s been going on in the world over the last week.

General Macro News

Beat from the street…(Tech/Business/Finance/Economy)


  • Reddit is holding talks with potential investors (again) for an IPO, which could come as soon as Q1 2024 (Bloomberg).
  • Jeff Bezos may sell as many as 8 million to 10 million shares, which would amount to roughly $1 billion worth of stock, sources told Faber. It comes after Bezos recently unloaded roughly $240 million worth of Amazon shares (CNBC). Adding clarity to this, it is reported that Bezos didn’t sell the shares but instead donated them to nonprofit organizations (The Motley Fool).
  • Amazon is looking for 50,000 square feet of office space in Florida as Jeff Bezos plans to move from Seattle, according to Bloomberg. Nationally, the office vacancy rate is over 20% as the commercial real estate crisis worsens. Meanwhile, in Florida office availability is now BELOW pre-pandemic levels and California and New York have lost a combined 750,000 residents since 2020. The real estate market in Florida has never been hotter. (The Kobeissi Letter).
  • Adobe says "Buy Now Pay Later" spending hit an all time high of $940 million on Cyber Monday. This is up a massive 42.5% compared to last year (The Kobeissi Letter).
  • The S&P 7, also known as the 7 largest tech stocks in the S&P 500, is up 80% in 2023. Meanwhile, the S&P 493, (the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500), is up just 4%. A few key stocks have essentially become the entire market leaving the fate of the stock market in the hands of these tech and AI companies (The Kobeissi Letter). 
  • As a result, these seven stocks have attracted the name “The Magnificent 7”; Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla (The Kobeissi Letter). 
  • “Hedge fund crowding has hit its highest on record, as asset managers have upped their bets on the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks that have juiced up portfolio returns this year, Goldman Sachs said. Megacap growth and technology stocks accounted for 13% of the aggregate hedge fund long portfolio, twice their weight at the start of 2023” (Opalesque).
  • Last week we quoted the number of people concerned about their jobs being displaced by AI with the number increasing 33% year-on-year, up 63% for those who work in media (GWI).

It was therefore interesting to see this statistic on the number of Amazon warehouse robots increasing over the years, as reported by Fin Watch:

  • 2023: 750,000
  • 2019: 200,000
  • 2017: 100,000
  • 2016: 45,000
  • 2015: 30,000
  • 2014: 15,000
  • 2013: 1,000

TradFi pulse:


  • Both Florida and Texas have been the largest beneficiaries of pandemic-based moving. They have added a combined ~800,000 residents since 2020 as remote workers seek lower taxes and a better quality of life (The Kobeissi Letter).
  • The price of gold hit a six-month high on Monday in US dollar terms. Gold Price : $2,012 (Fin Watch).
  • New home prices have crashed by the largest amount on record- now down 18% over the last year (Fin Watch).
  • Argentina’s President Javier Milei confirmed that he will shut down the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) as part of his economic reforms. Milei, who took office in November 2023 after winning a landslide victory on a libertarian platform, said that the BCRA has been a source of inflation, corruption and financial instability for decades and that it is time to end its monopoly on money creation (Tekedia). 

One of China’s largest shadow banks has warned that it is “severely insolvent”, with a debt pile more than twice its assets, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg News. In a further sign of trouble for the nation’s US$3 trillion (S$4 trillion) trust sector, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group told investors on Nov 22 that it has debts of about 420 billion yuan to 460 billion yuan compared with assets of 200 billion yuan, leaving at least a 220 billion yuan (S$41.5 billion) hole. Liquidity has dried up and the recoverable amount from asset disposals is expected to be low, the company said (Straits Times).

Crypto News

“Digital asset investment products saw inflows totalling $346m last week, the largest weekly inflows in this 9 consecutive week run. This run, spurred by anticipation of a spot-based ETF launch in the US, is the largest since the bull market in late-2021” (Medium). 

  • UK trade body, The Investment Association, released a statement in collaboration with the UK HM Treasury and the UK Financial Conduct Authority giving the green light for tokenized investment funds. The model allows FCA-authorized funds to adopt tokenization for redemption and sales in an effort from the UK Government to leverage blockchain technology to improve efficiency, transparency, and international competitiveness (Appold Market Watch). 
  • The Uber CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, says he is open for Uber to start accepting payment in crypto (Cryptodaily).
  • ARK Invest, the investment firm led by Cathie Wood, has sold 700k GBTC Shares Amidst Bitcoin Rally and ETF Speculation (Cointelegraph).
  • Do Kwon’s extradition has been approved by the Montenegro court (The Block).
  • SEC seeks to prove Binance & founder CZ committed an FTX-style fraud (WSJ).
  • Sandbox has announced its partnership with Shemaroo Entertainment, one of India’s leading media and entertainment conglomerates (Sandbox via Medium).
  • Circle and SBI Holdings are joining forces to boost USDC circulation and transform the financial landscape in Japan with $USDC and Web3 Services. This partnership signifies a major leap in digital asset innovation and a strategic expansion for USDC in Asia (Nikkei Asia).
  • OKX launches an exchange and wallet in Brazil (The Fintech Times). 
  • Magic Eden has launched a cross-chain NFT and crypto wallet for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon (Decrypt).
  • A Netflix Director used $4M of the show's budget to buy dogecoin, netting $27M in profits: Carl Erik Rinsch, the director of Netflix's sci-fi series "Conquest," allegedly utilized $4 million from the show's budget to invest in Dogecoin (DOGE) (CMC).
  • Animoca Brands invests in TON Network, and becomes the largest validator (Coindesk).
  • Singapore Implements New Rules to Safeguard Retail Investors in Cryptocurrency Trading: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the nation's central bank and financial regulator, announced the strengthening of regulations (CMC).
  • New Spanish tax laws require declaration of crypto assets on non-Spanish platforms. The Spanish Tax Administration Agency has introduced new regulations governing the taxation of virtual assets held by Spanish residents on non-Spanish platforms. Under these new laws, individuals and corporate taxpayers are obligated to declare their crypto holdings abroad by March 31, 2024 (Cryptopolitan). 
  • Cardano: AI chatbot starts beta phase. CardanoGPT has officially announced the beta launch of its AI-powered chatbot, Girolamo. This initiative marks a substantial advancement in the integration of (AI) technologies with the Cardano blockchain ecosystem (NewsBTC).
  • Fireblocks launches a trading system to mitigate centralized exchange risk (Cointelegraph).
  • US CFTC demands Coinbase user data in a suspected probe into Bybit (Protos).

Bitcoin Updates

Bitcoin holders (hodlers) show strong conviction as 70.35% of supply stays Inactive for over a year. This reflects strong confidence among long-term Bitcoin holders despite market challenges. The amount of supply untouched for two, three, and five years has also hit lifetime highs (Crypto Trading Reports).

  • Bitcoin hashrate hit an all-time-high, surpassing 500 exahash per second (EH/s) (Crypto Trading Reports).
  • Top lightening "Wallet of Satoshi" exits U.S. market."We've made the difficult decision to remove our app from the U.S. Apple and Google app stores, and will not serve U.S. customers going forward." (Wallet of Satoshi via X). 
  • Interactive Brokers has received approval to offer Bitcoin trading services to retail clients in Hong Kong (Cryptonews).
  • Austrian subsidiary of EU lender Raiffeisen Bank to launch Bitcoin trading services in 2024 (Cointelegraph).
  • SEC delays $1.5 trillion asset manager Franklin Templeton's spot Bitcoin ETF application (Bitcoin Magazine). 
  • Glassnode: Bitcoin ETF To Unlock $70B in New Demand: A new report predicts up to $70 billion could pour into Bitcoin if a spot ETF is approved (CMC).

Price predictions: 

  • Macro Strategist Dan Tapiero Foresees Bitcoin Surging to Over $100,000 in Upcoming Bull Run (Crypto Crunch App).
  • Standard Chartered Bank stands by its prediction from April that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024 -  An earlier-than-expected spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. could be the key catalyst, said the bank (CoinDesk).
  • Samson Mow Predicts Bitcoin Hitting $1 Million, Citing Hal Finney’s Influence (Crypto Crunch App).

Prices… (at time of writing)

  • BTC: €35,314.59 ↑ (2.3% change from last week)
  • ETH:  €1,922.65 ↓ (-0.1% change from last week)

Dominance:

  • BTC 49.64 ↑ (+0.26%) from 49.38%  last week  
  • ETH: 16.45 ↓ (-0.41%) from 16.86% last week  
  • Stables: 7.67 ↓ (-0.13%) from 7.8% last week

Market Cap:

  • Total: 1.48T ↑ (+2.7%) from 1.44T last week

Fear and Greed Index

(Alternative)

We have seen a continuation of the positive sentiment over the last week, with a +9% move up from 66 last week. The "greed" zone has now been in the green for 30 days in a row, something that hasn't happened since 2021 (Crypto Trading Reports):

Trading Highlights (at the time of writing - CoinGecko)

Top 3 Gainers (out of the top 100 by market cap only) - as always, this is not financial advice, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

(CoinGecko)

Meme of The Week

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