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Weekly Commentary December 22nd

Summarising weekly developments: Macro, TradFi, Crypto and Regulation...

Published in: One Trading · 5 min read
Summarising weekly developments: 1T, Macro, TradFi, Crypto and much more...

Happy Friday One Traders!

We hope you’ve had a great week! Not too long to go now until Christmas. 

If you're not already, connect with us on our community channels Discord and Telegram for more regular updates. You can read this week’s blog on our strategic partnership with DeFinity Markets here.

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Let’s have a look at what’s been going on in the world over the last week.

General Macro News

Beat from the street…(Tech/Business/Finance/Economy)


  • PayPal announced that CEO Dan Schulman will resign from the board of PayPal Holdings, Inc., effective December 31, 2023. Schulman served as President and CEO of PayPal from 2015 to 2023 (PayPal Holdings).
  • Adobe and Figma, the cloud-based design tool, will terminate their planned merger in light of regulatory hurdles, the companies said Monday. “Adobe and Figma strongly disagree with the recent regulatory findings, but we believe it is in our respective best interests to move forward independently,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen wrote in a statement. Adobe will pay Figma a $1 billion breakup fee, Adobe said in a regulatory filing (CNBC).
  • China has banned the iPhone across government and state firms (Bloomberg).
  • Pakistan has blocked access to certain social media platforms, including: X, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube (WioNews).
  • The EU has taken legal action against Twitter for an alleged breach of responsibilities and deceptive design (Thierry Breton via 𝕏).

TradFi pulse:


  • India's Nifty 50 Index rises to new all-time high. Indian benchmark indices extended their bull run for the seventh consecutive week, reaching all-time highs on the back of potential rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, the surge in industrial production, falling crude oil prices, and sustained FPI inflows (LiveMint).
  • Argentina's new government says it will weaken the value of its currency by more than 50% against the US dollar. This is part of the "economic shock therapy" that President Javier Milei says the country needs to fix its worst crisis in decades (BBC).
  • “Chinese Stocks continue to nosedive and have fallen to their lowest prices in 5 years” (Fin Watch).
  • US homelessness is up 12%, the highest level since reporting began in 2007 (Fin Watch).
  • The Fed held its last committee meeting of the year last week, following which, we saw a massive market rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 1.4%, Russell 2000 – the index of small-capitalization stocks increased 3.7% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all-time high, rising 1.4%. Additionally, the US Dollar index dropped by 1% while gold and oil were up 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively. US government bonds also advanced heavily with the 2-year bond yields dropping roughly 30 basis points (0.3%) and 10-year bond yields around 20 basis points (0.2%). These are truly significant moves, especially in terms of the bond market where moves can be comparable to those which have happened in the past during some kind of crisis.” (Global Markets Investor).
  • It's tough to find a time with a more overbought technical picture. Still, the S&P 500 continues to push toward a record high. Let's hope that the Fed truly is pivoting as they signaled last week (The Kobeissi Letter). The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 35% of the ENTIRE index. The last time we saw this level of concentration? In 2001 when the Dot-com bubble burst. The "Magnificent 7" are now approaching +100% for 2023. Meanwhile, the remaining 493 stocks are still up less than 10%. All while the S&P 500 is up a massive 23% because of these 10 technology stocks. Truly a historic time for markets (The Kobeissi Letter):

Crypto News

  • Digital asset investment products saw minor outflows totalling $16m, ending an 11-week run of inflows. Trading activity remained well above the year average though, totalling $3.6bn for the week, compared to the year-to-date average of $1.6bn (Coinshares).
  • Come the new year, fintech firm Revolut will stop allowing UK business clients to buy crypto using its platform, according to a report in City A.M. While Revolut's UK business customers will be able to hold or sell crypto, they will not be able to purchase more, City A.M. reported, citing an email the outlet had seen (The Block).
  • The UK has introduced new regulations that will give the nation's financial watchdogs rules for supervising a sandbox for tokenized securities, according to an official publication on Monday. The regulations will be for the UK's Digital Securities Sandbox, DSS, and they come into force on Jan. 8, 2024. They are part of the UK government's Financial Services and Markets Act 2023, or FSMA. 
  • The UK Treasury stated that oversight of the new regulations will be a joint effort between the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority, FCA. "The Bank and the FCA must take such steps they consider appropriate to cooperate with each other in connection with the operation and supervision of the DSS," the legislation said (The Block).
  • Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest sold $59 million worth of Coinbase shares, $15 million of GBTC last week (The Block).
  • Cosmos Interchain Foundation budgets $26M for ecosystem development in 2024 (Cointelegraph).
  • OKX DEX has suffered a security breach as a result of a compromised private key, according to cybersecurity firms. PeckShield says the exploit enabled the hackers to get away with $2.76 million worth of Ethereum (ETH), Tether (USDT) and USDC (Daily Hodl). 
  • Ledger was compromised and injected with a malicious drainer. The exploit was caused when a former employee fell victim to a phishing scam (Ledger).
  • SocGen's euro stablecoin fails to gain traction, with only $692 in trades. Euro stablecoins struggle to attract traders despite Societe Generale's listing as the first major bank to launch a stablecoin (DL News).
  • Member of Parliament Natalie Elphicke called for the U.K. government to do more to take advantage of blockchain technology. The U.K. government wants to be a crypto hub but has said little about how it plans to regulate the blockchain industry (CoinDesk).
  • The Solana Saga phone has sold out in the US as traders spot arbitrage with memecoin, Bonk's, skyrocketing price (The Block). The phones are also said to have been selling for over $5K on eBay as a result (Cointelegraph).
  • The SEC has denied crypto exchange Coinbase's request for digital asset regulation, arguing that current rules already apply (Gary Gensler via X).
  • Companies have been flocking to Blockchain-Based Private Credit amid interest rate hike, Triggering 55% surge in sector. The rise in interest rates prompts a growing number of companies to seek financing through blockchain-based private credit, resulting in a substantial boost to the sector (Cryptonews).

Bitcoin Updates

Bitcoin has achieved a new all-time high of 1,022,000 addresses holding 1 or more Bitcoin (CryptoTradingReports):

The BTC 60-day correlation with the Nasdaq has turned negative in December (Kaiko Data):

  • Montenegro's Prime Minister Milojko Spajić met with JAN3 executives to discuss Bitcoin's potential in boosting the economy (BTC Times).
  • EVM chains experienced a record high of $8M in gas spent on Ordinals inscriptions over the last week (CoinTelegraph).
  • The Bitcoin Average Transaction fee has also reached $37.22 (Ycharts). Note: Bitcoin Average Transaction Fee measures the average fee in USD when a Bitcoin transaction is processed by a miner and confirmed. Average Bitcoin transaction fees can spike during periods of congestion on the network, as they did during the 2017 Crypto boom where they reached nearly 60 USD.
  • The US Ambassador of Argentina has praised the development of more Bitcoin mining projects in the country, citing its potential to reduce methane gas emissions and bolster the economy (Marc R. Stanley via X).
  • To avoid an unfair advantage from a policy perspective Vaneck CEO expects all Bitcoin ETFs to be approved at the same time. He also expects to see a new all time high within the next 12-months. See the interview via the link (Radar via X).

Prices… (at time of writing)

  • BTC: €39,564.75 ↑ (1.5% change from last week)
  • ETH:  €2,092.35 ↑ (0.9% change from last week)

Dominance:

  • BTC: 49.86% ↑ (0.4%) from  49.46%   last week  
  • ETH: 15.61% ↓ (-0.7%) from 16.31% last week  
  • Stables: 6.75% ↓ (-0.08%) from 6.83% last week

Market Cap:

  • Total: 1.72T ↑ (2.99%) from 1.67T last week

Fear and Greed Index

(Alternative)

While we have seen a 2.78% move down from 72 last week, market sentiment remains positive.

Trading Highlights (at the time of writing - CoinGecko)

(CoinGecko)

Meme of The Week

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