Weekly Commentary November 12th

‍Happy Friday One Traders!

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We hope you’ve had a good and successful week. If you're not already, connect with us on our community channels Discord and Telegram for more regular updates.

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If you haven’t tried Instant Trade yet, you can read a summary of all of the benefits here. You can also see a comparison in the prices we offer vs other mainstream exchanges in our blog here. 

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Let’s have a look at what’s been going on in the world over the last week.

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General Macro News

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Beat from the street…(Tech/Business/Finance/Economy)

• The iPhone 12 has been banned in France due to dangerous EMF radiation (Reuters).
• Apple CEO, Tim Cook, contested the notion that the company was behind in AI in Apple’s Q4 earnings call with investors. He highlighted technology developments that Apple had made recently that “would not be possible without AI.” He specifically pointed to new iOS 17 features like Personal Voice and Live Voicemail as examples of its innovation with AI technologies. In addition, Cook confirmed Apple was working on generative AI technologies (Tech Crunch).
• Elon Musk is looking to recover from his early exit from ChatGPT and revamp the landscape of AI chat technologies by infusing personality and a touch of rebellion into digital interactions with the launch of an AI chatbot named Grok. Launched by xAI, Grok's unique character stems from "The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy," ensuring it possesses wit and dares to tackle audacious inquiries other AIs’ might shun. (Promptbox).

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TradFi pulse:

• The Federal Reserve has opted to keep interest rates steady, holding them within the 5.25-5.5% range. This decision comes against the backdrop of an economy that's sending mixed signals on inflation and growth. Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments reflected a readiness to increase rates further if inflation does not show signs of subsiding adequately. Yet, by hitting pause, the Fed signals its intent to give the economy some breathing room, allowing more time to assess the full impact of its previous rate hikes. 
• In the UK, the Bank of England has taken a firm approach, maintaining interest rates at a 15-year high of 5.25%. With a wary eye on inflation, Governor Andrew Bailey underscored the necessity of keeping rates high for an "extended period," with rate hikes still on the table if economic conditions warrant them. This indicates a cautious approach to easing monetary policy, suggesting that the BoE is not yet ready to signal any potential relief for borrowers.
• The UK housing market is showing signs of pressure, with mortgage approvals dipping to the lowest levels since January—signaling a slowdown in housing turnover as a result of the Bank’s rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the eurozone offered a surprising reprieve with a significant slowdown in inflation to 2.9%. However, this positive news is tempered by the fact that the region's economic growth is losing momentum, evidenced by a slight GDP contraction of 0.1% (Simplicity Group Alpha).

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Crypto News

• Digital asset investment products saw inflows totalling $261m this week, representing the 6th week of consecutive inflows that now totals $767m, surpassing the total inflows of $736m seen in 2022 (Coinshares).
• “In a LinkedIn job posting, the London Stock Exchange Group says it’s seeking a digital assets lead with a passion for digital assets, crypto and blockchain” (Cointelegraph).
• FTX wants to sell $744m worth of Grayscale, Bitwise assets (Coindesk).
• Bored Ape Creator Yuga Labs and Magic Eden Launching Ethereum NFT Marketplace That Enforces Royalties. Magic Eden’s new Ethereum NFT marketplace will be “contractually obligated” to pay royalties (Decrypt).
• The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) has approved the use of TON and XRP for the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) (Cointelegraph).
• The Federal Reserve has threatened to sue Bitcoin Magazine for their satirical "FEDNOW" merchandise, which incorporates a panopticon eye (suggesting FEDNOW is a form of 24/7 digital surveillance) into the logo design. In response, Bitcoin Magazine publicizes the cease and desist notice and includes a link directly to said merchandise in the announcement (Dylan LeClair via X).
• Unibot fully compensated users for hacking losses. In total, around $600k was lost in the exploit which the Unibot team has covered in full with a cost basis of $1.78m (Unibot via X).
• Following the implosion of Credit Suisse earlier this year, Swiss authorities and UBS are considering ways to prevent bank runs. They're exploring options like spreading withdrawals over longer periods and potentially imposing exit fees (Reuters). 
• PayPal received a subpoena from U.S. SEC division of enforcement relating to PYUSD stablecoin (Reuters). 
• NFT sales jumped $129M in November (Nansen Data) (Cointelegraph).
• Open sea cuts half of employees as CEO goes in a new direction (The Block).

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Bitcoin Updates

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As we saw last week, rising optimism has prompted the largest inflows into digital asset investment products for 1.5 years totalling US$326m, of which, Bitcoin saw 90% of the inflows at US$296m (Coinshares Blog). We have seen a continuation of this positive sentiment in the last week as noted above, which is reflected in the inflows into crypto assets.

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As seen below, Bitcoin settled more than 40 million transactions in a single quarter for the first time since its inception in Q3 of 2023 (Hashdex):

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$4.5 trillion Fidelity Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, says Bitcoin's risk-reward is "in a different universe." “Particularly, Fidelity’s chart analyzes results from 2020 to October 29, 2023, from multiple financial assets in two axes:

The X-axis (horizontal) represents the risk, illustrated by the annualized volatility through the standard deviation in the period. The Y-axis (vertical) represents the reward, measured by the annualized return of each given asset.” (Finbold).

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In other Bitcoin related news, Hong Kong regulator welcomes Bitcoin and crypto spot ETF applications - The SFC’s chief executive, Julia Leung, said the regulator will entertain proposals that “boost efficiency and customer experience.” Earlier this year, many investors viewed US investment manager BlackRock’s application to launch a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund as a sign the market was ready for a spot ETF (BeInCrypto).

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Prices… (at time of writing)

• BTC: €34,742.74 ↑ (6.8% change from last week)
• ETH:  €1,919.01 ↑ ( 9.6% change from last week)

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Dominance:

• BTC: 49.88% ↓ (-1.09%) from 50.97% last week  
• ETH:  17.19% ↑ (-0.83%) from 16.36% last week  
• Stables: 7.61% ↓ (-0.66%) from 8.27% last week

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Market Cap:

• Total: 1.45T ↑ (+8.97%) from 1.32T last week.

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Fear and Greed Index

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(Alternative)

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We’ve seen a -2.78% move down from 72 last week, showing less confidence than the previous two weeks. Despite this slight downgrade in confidence, the capital inflows into digital assets have been consistent and the market cap has risen almost 9% since last week.

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Trading Highlights (at the time of writing - CoinGecko)

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Top 3 Gainers (out of the top 100 by market cap only) - as always, this is not financial advice, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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Meme of The Week

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This material is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future nor a reliable indicator of the likely performance of any investment. Recipients should consult their own advisors before making these types of decisions. One Trading has no responsibility or liability for any decision made or any other acts or omissions in connection with Recipient’s use of this material. 

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