Weekly Commentary November 17th

‍Happy Friday One Traders!

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We hope you’ve had a good and successful week. If you're not already, connect with us on our community channels Discord and Telegram for more regular updates.

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If you haven’t tried Instant Trade yet, you can read a summary of all of the benefits here. You can also see a comparison in the prices we offer vs other mainstream exchanges in our blog here. 

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This week we announced a strategic partnership with Lexia, a premium Italian law firm, to help One Trading Clients understand Italian Tax Regularization. You can read more about this partnership and how we help clients file their crypto taxes in Italy here.

We're excited to soon be rolling out an upgrade to our exchange called F.A.S.T, making the One Trading Exchange the lowest-latency digital asset exchange in the world, providing clients with the fastest price discovery and order execution amongst digital asset trading venues.

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Let’s have a look at what’s been going on in the world over the last week.

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General Macro News

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Beat from the street…(Tech/Business/Finance/Economy)

• Elon Musk's Starlink to bag a license for satellite broadband operations in India, set to compete with Reliance and Airtel (Times of India).
• Google $GOOGL owned YouTube is testing a chatbot that will appear under select videos (The Verge).
• Samsung’s Galaxy S24 will likely include on-device generative AI called Samsung Gauss (The Verge)
• Amazon dedicates a team to train an ambitious AI model codenamed ‘Olympus’ (US News). 
• There’s now an AI baby bottle bot: Revolutionizing child care with artificial intelligence - the Cocoon Cam, which utilizes computer vision technology to monitor a child’s breathing, temperature and movements, while also sending alerts to parents in case of irregularities. The Aura Smart Baby Monitor offers similar functionalities, alongside HD night vision, remote panning, and an in-app daily activity tracker. Bluesmart Mia provides a smart bottle-feeding system that tracks and analyzes a baby’s intake and consumption patterns.
• A.I. technology, while promising, raises concerns about potential over-dependence, potentially sidelining other crucial aspects of upbringing. Additionally, there are significant privacy and security considerations due to the sensitive data collected about the child (News4Jax).

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TradFi pulse:

• Microsoft's stock hits an all-time high, fueled by OpenAI optimism, while U.S. bank stocks tumble to an all-time low relative to the S&P 500 amid a bond crash. The oil market is set for its third consecutive weekly drop as tensions in the Middle East diminish. Apple delves into generative AI and ChatGPT is influencing Google’s dominance in search. AI infrastructure startup Ritual secures $25 million to fill gaps in the crypto market, despite U.S. export restrictions, as the Chinese AI chip market continues to grow. (Arts DAO).

• The Bank of Russia is developping a digital ruble payment system with the UAE. The Bank of Russia’s First Deputy Governor Olga Skorobogatova stated that the system would serve individuals and businesses alike and estimated its development would take a year (Bitcoin.com).

• Chinese holdings of US Treasuries are officially at their lowest level since 2009 (Fin Watch):

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• U.S. Banks have fallen to an all-time low against the S&P 500 (Crypto Patel):

• Corporate Bond ETFs had an outflow of $9.4 Billion in October, the highest amount in history. (Crypto Patel): 

• Meanwhile, Less than half of S&P 500 companies are beating revenue estimates, the lowest % in 4 years (Fin Watch):

• Americans continue to withdraw their retirement savings. The number of participants taking hardship withdrawals from their 401(k) was up 13% in the third quarter versus the second quarter, according to a new survey from Bank of America (Yahoo Finance).

Crypto News

Digital asset investment products saw inflows totalling $293m last week, bringing this 7-week run of inflows past the $1bn mark, leaving year to date inflows at $1.14bn, making it the third highest yearly inflows on record (Coinshares).

Spot trading volume increases after multiple months of decline. The digital asset market insight provider put the total trading volume for the month at $632 billion, an increase of 87.2% on September. Data from The Block's Data Dashboard for October also showed monthly spot trading volume increasing for the first time in four months (The Block):

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• Binance's new self-custodial crypto wallet will be tied to the exchange's infrastructure, and users won't be able to export private keys (CoinMarketCap).
• Binance has adjusted the description of its memecoin, ORDI after being called out. The description of ORDI in the Binance announcement was misrepresentative implying that ORDI is a token of the Ordinals protocol. BRC-20 is a part of the Ordinals protocol, ORDI is just a memecoin in BRC20 (Coinedition).
• Binance has no real argument for dismissing SEC suit, regulator says in a new filing Wednesday (Coindesk)
• Standard Chartered Ventures and SBI Holdings are forming a $100 million company to back crypto startups based in the UAE (SC Ventures).
• EU watchdog sets out capital, liquidity rules for stablecoin issuers (Reuters)
• Robinhood to expand crypto trading into EU, plans to start UK brokerage (Coindesk)
• Celsius winner Proof Group is in running to relaunch FTX, sources say (Coindesk) 
• Former NYSE president in talks to reboot FTX exchange (WSJ)
• HSBC To Launch Digital Assets Custody for Tokenized Securities (Bloomberg)
• Expobank Issues First Tokenized Diamond Offering in Russia (Bitcoin.com).
• Circle eyes IP as USDC market dominance dips to two year low (CryptoSlate).
• South Korean crypto exchange #Bithumb plans its IPO on Nasdaq in the second half of 2025 (Edaily).
• Goldman and BNP Paribas lead $95M new funding for UK-based Fnality blockchain payments firm (Reuters).

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Bitcoin Updates

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Bitcoin emerges as the world's top ESG asset across six critical metrics (Bitcoin Square) - this is measured against:

1. Mitigate methane profitably with existing tech.
2. High current level of methane mitigation
3. % sustainable fuel use
4. Industry growth & emissions decoupled 
5. Low, declining emission intensity
6. Major energy source is renewable

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Sustainability in Bitcoin mining has been an issue in years gone by and it appears that this is gradually being remedied with renewable energy use and more efficient mining techniques. The rise in Bitcoin ETF applications highlights a rise in institutional adoption and recognition as a significant asset class, as such, the narrative that Bitcoin is harmful for the environment is abating.  Forbes also wrote an article in September covering: “Why Bitcoin Mining Might Actually Be Great For Sustainability” (Forbes).

The price of Bitcoin remains north of $35K (at time of writing). A sudden drop caused significant losses to those expecting the price to climb higher and the Bitcoin Illiquid Supply metric, which measures the amount of supply held in wallets with minimal history of spending is at an ATH of 15.4M BTC (Glassnode). This shows that more people are holding and many are holding in cold wallets. 

The number of Bitcoin wallets holding significant value has tripled in 2023; over 81,000 wallet addresses now hold $1 million or more worth of Bitcoin (Crypto Trading Reports).

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Prices… (at time of writing)

• BTC: € ↑ (6.8% change from last week)
• ETH:  € ↑ ( 9.6% change from last week)

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Dominance:

• BTC: 51.5% ↑ (+1.62%) from 49.88% last week
• ETH: 17.2% ↑ (+0.01%) from 17.19% last week   
• Stables: 7.65 ↑ (+0.04%) from 7.61% last week

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Market Cap:

• Total: 1.43T ↓ (-1.4%) from 1.45T last week

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Fear and Greed Index

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There has been no change since last week.

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Trading Highlights (at the time of writing - CoinGecko)

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Top 3 Gainers (out of the top 100 by market cap only) - as always, this is not financial advice, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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You can trade AVAX, RUNE and PEPE on Instant Trade!

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Meme of The Week

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Thanks for reading. If you’ve enjoyed this newsletter and have found it informative please let us know via our social channels and feel free to share it with friends. For any new readers, welcome! You can subscribe for this weekly alpha here.

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Have a great weekend 😃 and for more updates, follow us across our various channels here. We’d especially love to see you and hear from you via our community channels; Discord and Telegram (English) Telegram (German) 👋

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This material is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future nor a reliable indicator of the likely performance of any investment. Recipients should consult their own advisors before making these types of decisions. One Trading has no responsibility or liability for any decision made or any other acts or omissions in connection with Recipient’s use of this material. 

In the United Kingdom, this communication may constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Accordingly, it is issued only to, or directed only at, persons who are investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "FPO").