Weekly Commentary November 24th

‍Happy Friday One Traders!

‍

We hope you’ve had a good and successful week. If you're not already, connect with us on our community channels Discord and Telegram for more regular updates.

‍

If you haven’t tried Instant Trade yet, you can read a summary of all of the benefits here. You can also see a comparison in the prices we offer vs other mainstream exchanges in our blog here. 

We'll soon be upgrading our exchange called F.A.S.T, making the One Trading Exchange the lowest-latency digital asset exchange in the world, providing clients with the fastest price discovery and order execution amongst digital asset trading venues.

‍

Let’s have a look at what’s been going on in the world over the last week.

‍

General Macro News

‍

Beat from the street…(Tech/Business/Finance/Economy)

• Texas Attorney General, Ken Paxton, has opened an investigation into Media Matters for potential fraudulent activity after X CEO, Elon Musk, accused the left-wing media watchdog group of manipulating data on the social media platform (X).
• Citigroup, announces layoffs for 300 senior manager roles, or 10% of all workers at that level. This is the beginning of a "massive restructuring" of the bank (Banking Dive).
• CBDC’s Not Yet Ready for Mainstream, Says Mastercard. Mastercard’s expert Ashok Venkateswaran has expressed skepticism about the current viability of CBDCs (Cryptonews).
• India is reportedly closing in on an agreement with Tesla that would allow Tesla to ship its EVs to the country from next year and set up a factory within two years (INC42).
• AI is causing more people to think about their place at work, with the number worried about technology taking their jobs increasing 33% year-on-year. For people who work in the media though, it’s up 63% (GWI).
• Google’s new ChatGPT competitor Gemini is unlikely to arrive this year, and Meta has restructured its Responsible AI team (GWI).
• Google DeepMind and YouTube have created the most advanced AI music generation model yet, letting users create a masterpiece just by humming (GWI).

Microsoft almost pulled off one of the greatest "acquisitions": Prior to the firing of Sam Altman, OpenAI was worth ~$90 billion. Last weekend, Microsoft was able to hire Sam Altman and Greg Brockman after having no advance notice that they would be fired.

On the back of Sam Altman being fired and then hired by Microsoft  to lead an AI team, 660 OpenAI employees said they might follow. In other words, Microsoft almost hired Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and potentially 85% of OpenAI . All leading to a, potentially, $70 billion jump in Microsoft's market value (The Kobeissi Letter). 

Since this post, Sam has been reinstated as CEO at OpenAI:“We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angelo (OpenAI via X).

TradFi pulse:

• UK inflation falls by more than expected in October to 4.6%, lowest in two years (Reuters).
• Tech stocks wrap up the strongest three-week rally since the early days of Covid in April 2020 (CNBC). Although, they have also had large falls recently so this is more of a bounce back. 
• UBS: Recession will hit the U.S. in 2024, get ready for massive interest-rate cuts (Business Standard).
• Ray Dalio says the U.S. is reaching an inflection point where the debt problem could worsen (CNBC).
• Joe Biden has forgiven $127 billion in student loan debt (Bloomberg)

U.S. CPI inflation is at 3.2%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities (Fin Watch):

1. Car Insurance Inflation: 19.2%
2. Car Repair Inflation: 9.6%
3. Transportation Inflation: 9.2%
4. Rent Inflation: 7.2%
5. Homeowner Inflation: 6.8%
6. Food Away From Home Inflation: 5.4%
7. Cereals & Bakery Products Inflation: 4.2%

Currently, US bank stocks are at record lows relative to the S&P 500. According to Moodys, major US banks are sitting on $650 billion in unrealized losses. Concurrently, the looming commercial real estate (CRE) crisis has small banks in question. Small banks currently hold ~70% of all CRE loans in the US, $1.5 trillion of which need to be refinanced by 2025 (The Kobeissi Letter).

“It's all linked -- Central Bank liquidity-> Global M2-> Bitcoin Price-> Crypto Prices-> Crypto Users”

“The liquidity cycle bottomed in Q4 2022 as did users of smart contract blockchains. However, the liquidity cycle only impacts the rate-of-change of adoption. Consistently, blockchain adoption increases YoY, irrespective of asset prices“.

“Blockchain technology is in a structural uptrend that will last for many years, and we are at the start of the next cyclical upswing (Jamie Coutts via X)”.

“Top economist who predicted the 2008 housing crash says the commercial real estate bubble is about to burst. Gary Shilling : Adding that it's not quite like 2008 but it is beginning to crack (Fortune).”

Crypto News

‍

Digital asset investment products saw inflows totalling $176m last week in a continuation of consecutive weekly inflows that has now lasted 8 weeks, bringing year-to-date inflows to $1.32bn (Coinshares).

‍

• Render (RNDR) price skyrocketed by 25% as Binance announced RNDR listing on its Japanese exchange (FX Street)
• Crypto app Strike announces partnership with Checkout.com to enable Bitcoin purchases in more than 65 countries (Fortune)
• Liquidity provider Kronos Research was hacked. Losses totaled more than $26 million (Kronos Research on X)
• Bittrex Global is closing “Effective Monday 4 December 2023, all trading activity on Bittrex Global will be disabled. After that date, customers will only be able to withdraw assets as part of the winding down process” (Bittrex Global, Full statement)
• The Philippines' Treasury is considering collaborating with the central bank to sell government bonds using digital currency. They are interested in blockchain technology after raising 15 billion pesos ($271 million) through tokenized bonds (CoinGape)
• Citigroup believes that this market, which includes bonds and other assets, might reach $5 trillion by 2030 (CoinPaprika)
• Banco Santander is now offering high net-worth clients in Switzerland the ability to buy Bitcoin (CoinDesk)
• In the wake of the ongoing crackdown by US regulatory agencies and investigations conducted by the Department of Justice (DOJ), Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has stepped down as chairman, whilst also being issued with $4.3 billion in fines (Bitcoinist) and released on $175M bail. Binance will pay $1.81 billion within 15 months, and a further $2.51 billion forfeiture as part of the deal with the Justice Department, prosecutors said. Zhao will personally pay $50 million. Zhao's plea agreement bars him from all involvement with Binance (Reuters)
• Tether credits USDT growth surge to ETF excitement and emerging markets (Cointelegraph).
• SEC filed a case against Kraken Exchange (Payward, Inc) (Via X). The Crypto community responds to the Kraken lawsuit and slams ‘dishonorable’ Gensler (Cointelegraph).
• Asset managers expect fund tokenisation within 1-3 years (Ledger Insights)

‍

Bitcoin Updates

‍

Bitcoin has remained above ≈€33K this week after a price rally that coincided with the news of the pro-Bitcoin presidential candidate, Javier Milei, won the election to become the new president of Argentina (Bloomberg).

‍

S&P Global Ratings upgraded El Salvador's credit rating, citing the government's restructuring of short-term local debt. El Salvador's debt rating is now raised from CCC+ to B-, equivalent to countries such as Ecuador and Nigeria (Bloomberg).

‍

The Bitcoin NFT market is thriving as it exceeds Ethereum sales by millions (Cryptoslate).

‍

We’ll cover more of a comprehensive review of Bitcoin next week.

‍

Prices… (at time of writing)

• BTC: €34,603.03 ↑ (3.2% change from last week)
• ETH:  €1,927.92 ↑ ( 6.9% change from last week)

‍

Dominance:

• BTC 49.38% ↓ (-2.12%) from 51.5%  last week  
• ETH: 16.86% ↓ (+0.34%) from 17.2% last week  
• Stables: 7.8% ↑ (+0.25%) from 7.65% last week

‍

Market Cap:

• Total: 1.44T ↑ (+0.69%) from 1.43T last week.

Fear and Greed Index

‍

‍

‍

Whilst still positive, we’ve seen a 5.7% move down from 70 last week.

‍

Trading Highlights (at the time of writing - CoinGecko)

‍

Top 3 Gainers (out of the top 100 by market cap only) - as always, this is not financial advice, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

‍

Meme of The Week

‍

Thanks for reading. If you’ve enjoyed this newsletter and have found it informative please let us know via our social channels and feel free to share it with friends. For any new readers, welcome! You can subscribe for this weekly alpha here.

‍

Have a great weekend 😃 and for more updates, follow us across our various channels here. We’d especially love to see you and hear from you via our community channels; Discord and Telegram (English) Telegram (German) 👋

This material is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future nor a reliable indicator of the likely performance of any investment. Recipients should consult their own advisors before making these types of decisions. One Trading has no responsibility or liability for any decision made or any other acts or omissions in connection with Recipient’s use of this material. 

In the United Kingdom, this communication may constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Accordingly, it is issued only to, or directed only at, persons who are investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "FPO").