Weekly Commentary November 4th

‍Happy Friday One Traders!

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We hope you’ve had a good and successful week. If you're not already, connect with us on our community channels Discord and Telegram for more regular updates.

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If you haven’t tried Instant Trade yet, you can read a summary of all of the benefits here. You can also see a comparison in the prices we offer vs other mainstream exchanges in our blog here. 

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Let’s have a look at what’s been going on in the world over the last week.

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General Macro News

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Beat from the street…(Tech/Business/Finance/Economy)

• Meta, (META), has been sued by dozens of states for allegedly harming the mental health of kids and teens (Techcrunch).
• Apple has just increased the price of the Apple TV subscription by 50% (CNET).
• Google (GOOGL) stock is now down by 10% posting its worst day since March 2020. Nearly $200 billion in market cap has been erased on Thursday 26th alone. The 7 largest tech stocks in the S&P 500 lost more than a combined $500 billion in the same day. Paypal was one of them with their shares closing at the lowest price since May 30, 2017 (Fin Watch).
• Aadhaar details of 810 million people leaked in India's ‘biggest’ data breach (Hindustan Times).
• Musk intends to transform X into a one-stop financial platform offering a range of services, eliminating the necessity for separate bank accounts. Elon Says X Payments Will Eliminate Need for Bank Account by End of 2024 (Cryptoslate).
• WeWork plans to file for bankruptcy (Reuters).

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TradFi pulse:

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its interest rates. While the ECB hinted at the possibility of future hikes, they emphasised a data-dependent approach. Additionally, they announced the continuation of reinvestments for bonds procured during their pandemic emergency buying program until at least the end of 2024.

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The Eurozone's business activity, however, faced a setback. The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI, an amalgamation of both manufacturing and services sectors, dropped to 46.5 from September's 47.2, marking its fifth consecutive month below the neutral 50 threshold. (Simplicity Group Alpha). 

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Looking further afield, things have not improved in the U.S., Japan, or, China. 

Treasuries are now more volatile than stocks by the largest margin in history Fin Watch via Bloomberg.

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U.S. Bank losses on held-to-maturity assets have soared to an all-time high of $400 Billion (Fin Watch).

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Homebuyer traffic has fallen ~40% in the US since the start of 2023 to near the lows of 2020, according to Reventure Consulting. There have only been 3 other times with homebuyer traffic this low:

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1. 2020 Lockdowns

2. 2008 Financial Crisis

3. 1980s Housing Crash

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(Fin Watch).

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The Japanese Yen has also recently fallen to its lowest level against the U.S. Dollar in more than 33 years (Morningstar).

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There have been big changes in China since June 2023 (Crypto Patel):

1. Evergrande files Chapter 15 bankruptcy

2. Largest tax cuts since 2008 announced

3. Interest rates lowered on $6 trillion of mortgages

4. Unexpectedly cuts rates by most since 2020

5. Bank run begins at Bank of Cangzhou

6. Banks cut deposit rates for the 3rd time this year

7. Government plans another new stimulus package

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Crypto News

Rising optimism has prompted the largest inflows into digital asset investment products for 1.5 years in the last week at US$326m.

Bitcoin saw 90% of the inflows at US$296m, although the recent price rise also prompted inflows of US$15m into short-Bitcoin investment products.

The improving optimism also prompted significant inflows of US$24m into Solana, while some other altcoins saw inflows this optimism did not include Ethereum which saw another US$6m of outflows.

The largest flows were from Canada, Germany and Switzerland, with inflows of US$134m, US$82m and US$50m respectively (Coinshares Blog).

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Since spring of 2023, the majority of stablecoin inflows to the 50 biggest crypto services have shifted from U.S. licensed-services to non-U.S. licensed services.

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We can see similar trends in looking at stablecoin on-chain transaction volume by whether or not the issuer is a U.S. licensed entity (Chainalysis).

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• Kraken shares 42,000 users info with the IRS (The Block).
• Binance’s market share has fallen from 74% in December 2022 to 50% this month (The Block).
• Animoca Brands has announced the acquisition of Web3 streaming platform Azarus. The price for the acquisition of the majority stake wasn’t disclosed (Venture Beat). 
• Saudi Arabia's NEOM megaproject proposes investing $50 million in Animoca Brands (The Block).
• Solana has announced a partnership with Amazon Web Services. Solana nodes are now available for quick deployment on AWS (Solana.com).
• Gemini sues Genesis over GBTC shares used as Earn collateral, now worth $1.6 billion (Cointelegraph).
• The UK government has confirmed plans to regulate crypto-asset activities more strictly, bringing them under the same regime as traditional financial services (Bloomberg). 

PayPal UK unit registers as a crypto service provider (Coindesk).

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Bitcoin Updates

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Tuesday 31st (Halloween) marked the 15-year anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin Whitepaper by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto.

As noted in previous newsletters, there is a lot of ongoing interest surrounding the upcoming high profile ETF applications. Valkyrie, BlackRock, Ark and VanEck have updated their spot Bitcoin ETF applications. Bernstein Research believes $600 billion+ could flow into Bitcoin when a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved (Cointelegraph).

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Prices… (at time of writing)

• BTC: €32,410.28 ↑ (0.5% change from last week)
• ETH:  €1,714.61 ↑ ( 1.3% change from last week)

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Dominance:

• BTC: 50.97% ↑ (+1.44%) from 49.53% last week  
• ETH: 16.36% ↓ (-0.25%) from 16.61% last week
• Stables: 8.27% ↓ (-1.42%) from 9.69% last week

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Market Cap:

• Total: 1.32T ↑ (+16.81%) from 1.13T last week.

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Fear and Greed Index

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We’ve seen a bit of movement down in the meantime but we’re now back to 72, the same as last week. As we mentioned in the last newsletter, the recent rally in the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum seems to be one of the main reasons for the leap towards “Greed” on the index. Short-term price movements always tend to get the crypto community excited, but one should not lose sight of the long-term view.

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Trading Highlights (at the time of writing - CoinGecko)

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Top 3 Gainers (out of the top 100 by market cap only) - as always, this is not financial advice, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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Meme of The Week

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This material is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future nor a reliable indicator of the likely performance of any investment. Recipients should consult their own advisors before making these types of decisions. One Trading has no responsibility or liability for any decision made or any other acts or omissions in connection with Recipient’s use of this material. 

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