Weekly Commentary October 20th

‍Happy Friday One Traders!

‍

We hope you’ve had a good and successful week. If you're not already, connect with us on our community channels Discord and Telegram for more regular updates.

‍

Just in case you missed it, we added new tokens to Instant Trade last week: 

➡BAL, YGG, MANA, LPT

‍

If you haven’t tried Instant Trade yet, you can read a summary of all of the benefits here. You can also see a comparison in the prices we offer vs other mainstream exchanges in our blog here. 

‍

Let’s have a look at what’s been going on in the world over the last week.

‍

General Macro News

‍

Beat from the street…(Tech/Business/Finance/Economy)

• Google’s AI-powered search experience can now generate images (The Verge).
• Microsoft says the U.S. has asked for $28.9 billion in an audit dispute (The Hindu).
• BlackRock $BLK clients withdrew $13 Billion from its long-term investment funds, the firm's first capital outflow since the onset of the pandemic  (Fin Watch).
• The S&P 500 will decline by about 10% and finish the year at 3,900 says Morgan Stanley's CIO Mike Wilson (Fin Watch).
• LinkedIn becomes the latest tech company to conduct layoffs. More than 650 roles will be cut from the company just months after they laid off approximately 700 employees (The Independent).
• Earlier this month, Swiss investment bank UBS launched a “tokenised” investment fund under a pilot project being run by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. By representing rights to the money market fund in a digital contract, registered on the Ethereum blockchain, UBS Asset Management said it would improve processes for fund issuance, distribution, subscriptions and redemptions. 
• US fund management giant Franklin Templeton is also experimenting with tokenization. It has created a money market fund, known as Benji, the first US-registered mutual fund to use a public blockchain (also Ethereum) to process transactions and record share ownership.
• Although it is early days, Franklin Templeton says the cost of running Benji is 10 times lower than its traditional funds.
• Delays settling transactions in traditional markets tie up many billions of dollars in regulatory capital. That could be freed up with blockchains, which can eliminate settlement risk (AFR).

‍

TradFi pulse:

While US CPI inflation is at 3.7%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities:

‍

1. Car Insurance Inflation: 18.9%

2. Car Repair Inflation: 10.2%

3. Transportation Inflation: 9.1%

4. Rent Inflation: 7.4%

5. Homeowner Inflation: 7.1%

6. Food Away From Home Inflation: 6.0%

7. Meat & Poultry Inflation: 4.8%

‍

While headline inflation is down from its highs, many basic necessities are still seeing 5%+ inflation (Fin Watch).

‍

Since the Fed started raising rates in March 2020, monthly bankruptcies have more than doubled. In September, we saw 62 corporate bankruptcies compared to ~25 prior to Fed rate hikes (Fin Watch). In 2023 so far in the US, 516 corporate bankruptcies have been recorded, double 2022's pace and 39% above the full-year count. Aside from 2020, levels are the highest since 2010. Rising deficits also raise concerns, with the US posting a likely $2 trillion deficit for fiscal 2023 after accounting for reversed student loan forgiveness. This exceeds even 2008 crisis-era levels (Archimed Capital).

‍

A bank run has begun in China at the Bank of Cangzhou on fears that the collapse of Evergrande made them insolvent. Just a couple months ago, China's largest property developer, Evergrande, filed Chapter 15 bankruptcy. This week, Country Garden, another major Chinese developer, missed a debt payment. All as China's HY real estate index is down ~85% from its high. Housing alone accounts for 25% of China's entire GDP. Many think this could send China into a recession (The Kobeissi Letter).

‍

In the UK, the RICS House Price Balance reached a concerning -69, a level not seen since the Great Financial Crisis. This index reflects the difference between realtors observing house price declines and those seeing increases. It's clear that a significant proportion of realtors are witnessing declining prices.

‍

While the UK's month-on-month GDP grew by 0.2% in August, services were the primary driver of growth, increasing by 0.4%. However, consumer-facing services dropped by 0.6% in the same period, indicating challenges in the consumer sector (Simplicity Group Alpha).

‍

Crypto News

‍

• Digital asset investment products saw inflows for the 3rd consecutive week totalling $15m, although trading volumes remain 27% below the 2023 average (Coinshares).
• Immutable and Amazon team up to advance Web3 gaming (Blockworks).
• MetaMask expands crypto on-ramp options with Stripe integration (CryptoSlate).
• STEPN has partnered with Apple Music - Now users will be able to listen to songs from Apple Music directly in the app (CoinTrust).
• JPMorgan debuts tokenized BlackRock shares as collateral with Barclays (Coindesk).
• Ferrari has started to accept payment in #cryptocurrency for its luxury sports cars in the U.S. and will extend the scheme to Europe following requests from its wealthy customers (Autonews).
• Uniswap launches a mobile Ethereum wallet on Android (Decrypt).
• ​​Uniswap will start charging a 0.15% swap fee on certain tokens starting October 17. The tokens with interface fees are: ETH, USDC, WETH, USDT, DAI, WBTC, agEUR, GUSD, LUSD, EUROC, XSGD (ICO Analytics).
• Payments processing giant Mastercard and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have successfully tested the interoperability of a central bank digital asset (#CBDC) and the ability to restrict the use of that currency to “authorised parties.” (The Daily Hodl).
• Ethereum (ETH) gas fees dropped to the lowest level in the last three years (Bitcoinsistemi).

• Binance to stop accepting new UK customers to comply with new FCA Guidelines (Coindesk). 
• Binance’s KYC Policies Under Scrutiny After Hamas Accounts Suspended. Crypto analyst Adam Cochran sparked debate on #X (previously Twitter) over #Binance’s know-your-customer (KYC) policies after highlighting suspicious accounts. Replying to a post showing now-closed Binance accounts allegedly tied to the #Palestinian Resistance Movement Hamas, Cochran asked how such accounts weren’t noticed if Binance has robust KYC procedures (Coin Edition).
• JPMorgan's blockchain-based collateral settlement application goes live (The Block). 
• New Project Atlas Unveiled for Crypto Surveillance! In a groundbreaking move, the BIS, Eurosystem, De Nederlandsche Bank, and Deutsche Bundesbank jointly launched Project Atlas. 🚀 Project Atlas is a bold Proof of Concept designed to monitor international Bitcoin and crypto-asset flows. This program will merge data from crypto exchanges with on-chain Bitcoin data, creating a powerful analytics platform for regulators and central banks to enhance their surveillance capabilities (Crypto Trading Reports).
• Coinbase spot trading volume falls by 52% compared to 2022: Report (Crypto Trading Reports).

‍

Bitcoin Updates

‍

Bitcoin has had yet another strong week but not without its fair share of drama… On Monday there were rumours circulating that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF had been approved causing a price surge of 8% up to $30K. This news also triggered over $50M in Bitcoin shorts to be liquidated (Bitcoin Telegram).

There was a new record hash rate again this week! (Bitcoin Telegram) Bitcoin hashrate continues rising, now at 447 exahash per second, up 77% year-to-date (Archimed Capital).

‍

Long-term holders now own 76% of Bitcoin's circulating supply (14.859M Bitcoin). They're accumulating at a rate of over 50k BTC per month. The levels of Bitcoin HODLers are remaining strong: 💪 (Bitcoin Telegram):

‍

‍

The SEC will not appeal Grayscale's court win over its spot Bitcoin ETF conversion (Reuters).

‍

Transactions on the Lightning Network have increased by more than 1212% in 2 years (Binance Research via X).

‍

While BTC 60-day correlation with risk assets has been moving upwards, it is way below its 2022 average of over 50%. In fact, BTC showed remarkable resilience to surging borrowing costs and growing macro uncertainty in September, outperforming the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (Unfolded Telegram).

If you are interested in trading Bitcoin you can do so on our platform with among the most competitive rates in the market via Instant Trade.

‍

Prices… (at time of writing)

• BTC: €28,121.42 ↑ (10.8% change from last week)
• ETH:  €1,522.45 ↑ ( 3.9% change from last week)

‍

Dominance:

‍

• BTC: 49.53%  ↑ (+1.32%) from 48.21% last week  
• ETH: 16.61%  ↓ (-0.62%) from 17.23% last week  
• Stables: 9.69% ↓ (-0.24%) from 9.93% last week

‍

Market Cap:

‍

• Total: 1.13T ↑ (+2.65%) from 1.1T last week

‍

Fear and Greed Index

‍

‍

We’ve seen a 10.64% move up from 47 last week. This may be related to the ever growing interest and awareness of Bitcoin on the international scale.

‍

Trading Highlights (at the time of writing - CoinGecko)

‍

Top 3 Gainers (out of the top 100 by market cap only) - as always, this is not financial advice, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

‍

‍

Meme of The Week

‍

Thanks for reading. If you’ve enjoyed this newsletter and have found it informative please let us know via our social channels and feel free to share it with friends. For any new readers, welcome! You can subscribe for this weekly alpha here.

‍

Have a great weekend 😃 and for more updates, follow us across our various channels here. We’d especially love to see you and hear from you via our community channels; Discord and Telegram (English) Telegram (German) 👋

‍

This material is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future nor a reliable indicator of the likely performance of any investment. Recipients should consult their own advisors before making these types of decisions. One Trading has no responsibility or liability for any decision made or any other acts or omissions in connection with Recipient’s use of this material. 

In the United Kingdom, this communication may constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Accordingly, it is issued only to, or directed only at, persons who are investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "FPO").