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Weekly Commentary October 6th

Summarising weekly developments: Macro, TradFi, Crypto and Regulation...

Crypto terminology. The ultimate 2024 guide
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Published in: One Trading · 5 min read
Summarising weekly developments: 1T, Macro, TradFi, Crypto and much more...

ONE TRADING NEWS

Happy Friday One Traders, 

Quick reminder, to stay in the know with regular community updates, join our community channels on Discord and Telegram

We’ve been busy adding new tokens to our new product, Instant Trade. This week we’ve added:

➡️ GALA, KSM. QNT, RNDR, OMG, SNX, BAL and YGG

If you haven’t tried it already, you can read a summary of all of the benefits of using our new product, Instant Trade here. You can also see a comparison in the prices we offer vs other mainstream exchanges in our blog here

Now let’s have a look at what’s been going on over the last week.

GENERAL MACRO NEWS

Beat from the Street (Tech/Business/Finance/Economy)

Global payment leader, Visa, has unveiled a new $100M initiative to invest in generative AI technologies for applications in commerce and payments.

  • The initiative will be managed by Visa Ventures, the firm's global corporate investment branch, which has been investing since 2007.
  • Generative AI can craft diverse content, including text, images, audio, and synthetic data, with platforms like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard illustrating its potential.

With a history in AI deployment for optimising payments and risk management, this is a likely next step for Visa, hoping to stay at the forefront of payment innovations. 

Beyond AI, the company has also expressed a strong inclination towards the incorporation of crypto in its payment methods, potentially providing both on and off-ramps in the coming cycle (Cointelegraph).


  • Bloomberg releases a mini-documentary entitled "America’s Looming Debt Spiral." Watch on Bloomberg.
  • Oil is likely headed to $150 a barrel warns Continental Resources CEO (Fin Watch).
  • #Reddit is to start paying users for viral posts as part of a 'Contributor Program' (Fin Watch).
  • GameStop $GME elected Ryan Cohen as CEO (Morningstar).
  • Ford’s CEO says up to 500,000 supplier workers could be laid off if the UAW strike continues (Yahoo Finance).

TradFi Pulse:

  • In the UK, revised figures for Q1 show stronger growth than previously estimated, at 0.3%. Meanwhile, Q2 GDP growth remains unchanged. On the housing front, UK mortgage approvals in August fell below expectations, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market, with approvals down over 35% since August of the previous year (Simplicity Group Alpha).
  • The largest Eurozone economy, Germany, continues to grapple with economic challenges, as both business and consumer sentiment deteriorates. The consumer confidence index, a key indicator of future consumer spending, has dropped to -26.5, with a warning from GfK stating that private consumption will not positively contribute to economic development this year. As a result, Germany is now expected to contract in 2023 (Simplicity Group Alpha).
  • The ECB President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane, have reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining a restrictive monetary policy for an extended period. Their goal is to bring inflation back to the 2% target. On the inflation front, Eurozone consumer prices increased by 4.3% annually in September, lower than expected and the slowest pace in about two years. The core inflation rate also dropped to 4.5% from 5.3% (Simplicity Group Alpha).
  • “An incredible $993 billion has gone into money market funds since the Fed started raising rates in March 2020. Inflows to money market funds are well ahead those seen in 2015, 2004, 1999 and 1994 rate hike cycles. With a strong US Dollar and falling bond prices, money market funds are the new safety trade. Why take risk on your "safety" trade when you can make 5% risk-free?” (Kobeissi Letter).
  • 10-Year Note Yield hits 4.70% for the first time since October 2007. While treasury yields hit new 15-year highs seeming every day, odds of an additional rate hike are down, as a long pause through July 2024 is expected. This comes with massive issuances of US Treasury bonds to cover deficit spending which are flooding bond markets and sending yields higher. (Kobeissi Letter).
  • 📉 The S&P 500 has now lost $3 trillion in value since the last Fed rate hike in July (Kobeissi Letter)

CRYPTO NEWS

  • PayPal filed a patent for a unique "NFT purchase and transfer system" (Lucky Trader).
  • Crypto lender BlockFi cleared to repay customers through liquidation plan (Bloomberg).
  • Binance fully exits Russia with sale to CommEX (Binance).
  • Crypto exchange WOO X partners with OpenTrade to offer tokenized Treasury Bills in Asia (The Block).
  • 3AC co-founder Zhu Su arrested in Singapore, sentenced to 4 months’ prison (Business Times).
  • Digital asset investment products saw inflows last week for the first time in 6 weeks totalling $21m (Coinshares).
  • Chainalysis lays off 15% of staff amid shift to AI (BeInCrypto).
  • See the 20 most discussed cryptocurrencies on Twitter in September 2023 via the link to the chart (ICO Analytics). Here’s a summary of the top 5: 
  1. PEPE: 13%
  2. BTC: 9.8%
  3. ETH: 9.5%
  4. XRP: 5.2% 
  5. USDT: 3.8%
  • Class-action suit filed against Binance for harm to FTX before its collapse (Cointelegraph)
  • Binance’s BTC trade volumes are down 48% in September, the second-largest monthly decline since April. Both drops coincided with the removal of zero fees for the largest BTC trading pairs. However, this decline seems more aligned with the DEX/CEX market (X):

Bitcoin Updates

Bitcoin has had a strong week, up 5% on the week at the time of writing (CoinGecko). Interestingly, 80% of the Bitcoin supply is currently held by investors who have maintained their holdings for at least 6 months or more 🙌 (Bitcoin Telegram).

Bitcoin is often criticised for being energy intensive, however It’s interesting to see a more positive narrative around its energy consumption; in fact 23% of Bitcoin mining is powered by hydroelectric energy, and it's one of the only major industries where fossil fuels are not the primary source of power (Bitcoin Telegram):

  • The percentage of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders just officially reached its highest level ever at 76.09% and 15.35% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over 10 years, this is an all-time high 🚀 (Bitcoin Telegram).
  • Former Goldman Sachs CEO is open to the idea of Bitcoin 🙌 "“A lot of bright people think it has a bright future. I'm open to Bitcoin." - Lloyd Blankfein (CoinDesk)
  • SEC delays decisions on Bitcoin spot ETFs for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (The Block), as well as Blackrock, Bitwise and Invesco spot Bitcoin ETF decision (X).
  • Oil conglomerate Tecpetrol to mine #Bitcoin with vented gas on site of the world's 2nd-largest shale reserves. The energy that would have otherwise been wasted (Cointelegraph).

Prices (at the time of writing)

  • BTC: €26,255.58  ⬆️ 3.2% from last week
  • ETH: €1,550.20 ⬇️ - 1.6% from last week

Dominance:

  • BTC: 49.7% ⬆️ (+2.6%) from 47.10% last week
  • ETH: 18.2% ⬆️ (+0.49%) from 17.71% last week
  • Stables: 10.96% ⬆️ (0.94%) from 10.02% last week 

Market Cap:

  • Total: 1.09T ⬆️ (+0.93%) from 1.08T last week

Fear and Greed Index

Alternative

There has been a rise in the Fear and Greed Index from 47 last week to 50 this week, situating the market in neutral sentiment.

Trading Highlights (at time of writing as per CoinGecko)

Top 3 Gainers (out of the top 100 by market cap only) - as always, please remember this is not financial advice, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future nor a reliable indicator of the likely performance of any investment.

CRV, SOL and GALA all had a strong week, you can trade these assets on our platform via Instant Trade.

Click here to visit our new product, Instant Trade

MEME OF THE WEEK...

Thanks for reading. If you have enjoyed this newsletter and have found it informative please let us know via our social channels and feel free to share it with friends or repost on socials. 

Have a great weekend 😃 and for more updates, follow us across our channels here. We’d especially love to see you and hear from you via our community channels; Discord and Telegram (English) Telegram (German).

All the best,

The One Trading team